It appears that people are much happier using their biases or intuition than a structured decision making tool, that according to Jean Steinberg, PhD from the National Institute of Mental Health. She does go on to say, however, that the more structure and simplification provided in a complex decision the more accurate the decision.
In another study by Paul Nutt, Ohio University, 91% of business owners felt they made good decisions. In reality 60% of those were a bust. And even more disturbing, according to this research, 60% of decision makers never explored any alternative after they made up their minds.
What causes us as business owners to make poor decisions? See if any one of these Decision Making Traps sound familiar.
#1. Overconfidence in your judgment — you fail to collect critical data because you are so sure of your assumptions and opinions. When you allow assumptions to go untested, the chances of making a bad decision increase. Assumptions sound like this: This service will save us money. Use a clarifying statement with all assumptions — Please give me an example of how this service will save us money — and you will increase your ability to make good decisions.
#2. Shooting from the hip — guilty as charged. With this decision making trap you believe you can keep straight in your head all the information you've discovered and you wing it instead of following a systematic procedure when making a final choice. Write it down! Write down your reasons for thinking something is a good idea and continue to ask questions that force you to probe deeper — How will we measure or what makes me think or why am I considering this now.
#3. Not keeping track — when we make a bad decision, our preference is to simply forget it ever happened. Instead, if you make it a point to write down how you came to that decision and you spend a little time analyzing what went wrong, chances are pretty good you won't go there again. Ignoring the impact of those bad decisions won't help us learn key lessons.
#4. Plunging in — we jump in without really understanding what the real issue is. We start to gather information and because we are either in a hurry or there is a crisis brewing, we jump to conclusions without really understanding the root cause of an issue. Chances are we may make a decision that doesn't address the real problem.
#5. Group failure — assuming that with so many smart people involved, good choices will automatically follow. I've also seen this called 'group think' when just because the group aligns behind something their collective thinking must be right. Too often companies shun people who come across as playing devils advocate. They are perceived of as difficult or not a team player. Listening to dissenting voices may stop you from making some bad decisions.
Take the time in 2009 to think about how you make decisions and how you model that behavior for your team. Come up with a simple but consistent way to review how you are making decisions. Don't let these decision making traps cost you valuable time or money.
